In San Francisco, the list price stopped meaning anything.

Every few years a market does something the old rules can’t explain. We’re in one of those stretches — and if you own a home or a condo in San Francisco or Marin, it’s worth understanding what’s actually happening, because the headlines aren’t quite catching it.

The asking price is a starting gun

Here’s the plainest way I can put it. In San Francisco today, the asking price has become a starting gun, not a finish line. New data reported in late August shows buyers are paying, on average, 26% over the list price to win a home. In a market where the median sale price sits north of $2 million, that’s not a rounding error — that’s routinely several hundred thousand dollars over asking, and in the strongest neighborhoods it’s more.

Condos caught fire

I’m not describing this from a chart. I’ve written offers for buyers across the city in the last several weeks, and this is the part that surprises people: the condo market in prime SF neighborhoods has caught fire. I’m seeing non-contingent offers land at hundreds of thousands over asking as the floor, not the ceiling. Condos spent six years as the quiet, patient corner of this market. That era is over. In July, 276 condos sold — a 25% jump year-over-year — and the median condo price climbed to $1.25 million, up 14%. Buyers who spent years waiting have looked at the rents, looked at single-family prices, and decided the condo is the smart way into the city they want.

Why now, and why so hard

The wealth is real and it’s local — AI money, IPO money, stock at all-time highs — concentrated in San Francisco in a way it simply isn’t anywhere else in the region. And supply is thin. When a serious buyer with cash meets a short list of genuinely market-ready homes, you get exactly what we’re seeing: bidding that ignores the number on the sheet.

One thing to hear from me, not at the closing table

New Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac rules tightening condo financing took effect August 3rd. For most buyers and sellers it changes nothing. For certain buildings it can complicate a loan. If you own a condo and there’s any chance you’ll sell in the next year, it’s worth a five-minute conversation now to make sure your building is clean on paper — because in a market moving this fast, you don’t want a financing snag costing you a buyer.

Marin runs on a different clock

Marin tells the opposite story from the city, and it’s worth understanding if you own there. Prices aren’t falling — Marin condos have actually risen about 10% over the past year, with a median around $706,000. But where San Francisco moves in days, Marin moves in weeks: the typical condo now takes roughly two months to sell. And it’s really two markets in one county. Southern Marin — Mill Valley, Tiburon, Sausalito — saw condos and townhomes trade from the low seven figures up past $3 million in just the last month, while Novato and San Rafael closed comparable homes for a third of that. The through-line is simple: Marin isn’t a bidding war, it’s a pricing market. The home that comes on priced to today’s comps and shows well gets its number. The one priced on last year’s hope sits — and in a market where the average listing takes 60 days, sitting is expensive.

The thread that ties both markets together

When buyers are setting the price, the home that walks into the market ready — priced right, presented right, financing-clean — is the one that captures the premium. The one that shows up unprepared gets the discount, even in a hot market.

If you’ve wondered what your specific home or condo would do right now, that’s the most useful conversation I can offer. Not a sales pitch — a real read on your address, your building, and your timing, from someone making these offers in this market every week.